"It's much more about the U.S. than it is about Syria and Assad," Galeotti said. Such an attack would likely kill no more than 20 million Americans and leave much of the country intact. In sum, the Russian military is not the equal of the U.S. military. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings. He added: "If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and for protecting our people, we will certainly use all the means available to us - and I'm not bluffing.". Over the weekend, Russian . ", Yet some see Putin's maneuvers in Syria as some broader geopolitical gambit that aims to secure a deal on Ukraine. Key Points. Concerns over the ability of Ukraine to continue the war in the long-term might force Kyiv to take risky steps of its own to break the stalemate. Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. Russia depends on Iranian airspace for its flight corridors into Syria, and reportedly is prepared to support Iranian ground troops aligned with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Baltic Fleet's assets today include only two small Kilo-class diesel powered submarines, one of which is used mostly for training, along with a handful of Sovremenny-class destroyers, a frigate, four corvettes, and a smattering of support ships. Franz-Stefan Gady, the specialist in future warfare, believes this will certainly yield benefits in 20 years' time but before then there will be a worrying gap. At first glance, this may look like any other NATO training exercise, but think again. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an attack that almost immediately resulted in a combination of sanctions and direct military support for Kyiv. Indeed, the Pentagon's senior leaders are asking questions that have been set aside for more than 20 years: Make no mistake: Experts agree that the U.S. military's globe-spanning force would clobber the Russian military in any toe-to-toe conventional fight. These five areas pose the greatest risk for the eruption of what we might be tempted to call "World War III.". Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. Biden should resist the calls for war with Russia. After all, there is little reason to trust Russia at this point. A screenshot taken from the Plan A nuclear war simulation. The second, more devastating countervalue scenario involves an all-out use of nukes to destroy the United States ability to wage war, with the side effect of reducing American society to a pre-industrial level of development. taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime, Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages. Russia claims to have some 750 tanks in its western military region, though its unclear how much of that equipment is legitimately combat-ready. The United States launches a counterstrike, but it is seriously hobbled by a lack of forces, with most of the U.S. Strategic Commands Minuteman III ICBMs and B-2 and B-52 bombers destroyed in the first strike. The intervention threatens to upset Putins chessboard and injects a new force into the conflict that could beat Russias army in the field. "I think we're going to have a very dangerous period within the next five to 10 years when a lot of the downsizing is going to happen. Ukraine war: Is there a stalemate - or is this the lull before the Hitler and Stalin carved up Poland in 1939, and after the war the Soviet Union annexed most of the Polish territory it grabbed in 1939, with . This is what nuclear war between US and Russia would look like According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. Diplomacy could ensure that both sides, though they want very different things, can work together to avoid the one thing everyone doesnt wantnuclear war. Russian soldiers sit atop their tank during military exercises in the southern Russia's Volgograd region, on April 3, 2014. "We've got a ton of experience in low-intensity warfare, counterinsurgency warfare, whereas a bulk of the Ukraine experience is facing a 21st-century, near-peer adversary," said Army Lt. Col. Michael Kloepper, commander of the U.S. Army's 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, which recently began its third rotation into Ukraine to train that nation's military forces. Meia Nouwens believes this leaves them with the choice of responding in either a "minimalist" or "maximalist" fashion, which carries the inherent risk of further escalating tensions. It's about "working out at what point a military response is the correct response," said Nick de Larrinaga, a London-based analyst for IHS Jane's Defense and Security Group. Ukrainian soldiers train outside Kyiv on Feb. 21. Those that survive would be left without power, medical care, communications, and viable food and fuel distribution networks. There will be no return to normalcy or status quo ante. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he understands the peril of nuclear weapons. 1st Class Jason Muzzy, an observer-controller from Company A, 1st Battalion, 161st Infantry Regiment, works with an Estonian soldier during a training exercise in Germany. Most importantly, the strike would preserve Washingtons ability to communicate with its nuclear forces. An all-out nuclear war would likely involve more than 3,000 warheads used by both sides, killing well over 100 million Americans and Russians. As . If U.S. forces routed their Russian counterparts and neared the Ukrainian-Russian border, Russia might target them with tactical nuclear weapons (typically 20,000 tons of TNT or less) to stop their advance. According to a recent open-source study (not published in a peer-reviewed journal), such an all-out attack would kill as many as 104,241,000 Americans. As a part of that, it is investing heavily to expand its submarine fleet. With modern technology and nuclear weapons, some wonder what a new World War would look like. Putin's spokesman pointed on Tuesday to the Biden administration . So not just the military but societies overall will be a prime target in future conflict.". Russia-Ukraine war - latest news updates; Pjotr Sauer. As a result, Ukraine has found itself with no country willing to actively defend it against nuclear-armed Russia for fear of entering into a nuclear war. A review of the military balance in the immediate Baltic theater would seem to give Russia an initial advantage in an aerial campaign against NATO, if Moscow's political objective was to push NATO out of the Baltics. Here's what it might look like. Some see NATO's newest members, like Estonia, as particularly vulnerable to Russia aggression. "What the Russians are looking for is not to take on and compete on equal terms with us. At the same time, a lot of these emerging technological capabilities will not be mature enough to really have an operational impact," he says. Video: As War Between Russia and Ukraine Continues in Europe, North Korea Appears To Be Rebuilding Its Nuclear Test Site (Veuer) The nuclear surprise attack, known as a "first strike," would . For comparison, that amount would pay for about three weeks of operations in Iraq and Syria. More than 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia may be headed for the second act of dissolution if Ukraine wins the war. He received his bachelor's from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. A World War Could Break Out in the Arctic | The Nation The costs to Russia would be too high, the benefits too limited. "We see some very sophisticated air defenses going into those airfields, we see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields," Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chief of the U.S. European Command and also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, said Sept. 28. I asked Franz-Stefan Gady, a specialist on future warfare at the IISS, what this would mean for you and me, here on the ground. Other estimates are much higher, but in general there is a high degree of uncertainty about how much of those forces exist only on paper, and how many are truly prepared for combat. But while it has moved large amounts. Most of them are legacy Soviet ships. There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. She is referring, of course, to Russia and China, described respectively in the UK government's Integrated Review as "the acute threat" and the long-term "strategic rival" to the West. He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Each location would likely receive a minimum of two nukes in case the first weapon fails to detonate. A modern-day nuclear bomb could wipe out an entire city and cause third-degree . Ukraine War / War With Russia: It's almost like NO ONE thought it through first before they launched this proxy war in Ukraine? The war in Ukraine has caused concerns about nuclear war. They've also asked for anti-aircraft guns and more equipment to neutralize enemy snipers, he told Military Times. Ukrainian officials in Kiev have made repeated pleas for more. "Our team used independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets," Glaser said. "It became clear that Russia is going to exercise a more ambitious policy in the Middle East. In this scenario, both sides have lost. Scientists at Princeton University decided to develop this potential scenario using "independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets." First off, "future warfare" is already here. Experts inside Russia believe the incursion into Syria, along with Putin's aggressive speech at the United Nations on Sept. 28, signal his long-term interest in becoming a key player in the region. While it is possible, of course, that a nuclear exchange remains "limited" and the other side backs off or responds with conventional weapons only, there would be huge pressure on decision-makers to "respond in kind" and deny the side to strike first any advantage. How much are the Russians truly capable of? Taking this territory against the current opposition in Ukraine would require a force of around 24,000-36,000 personnel over six to 14 days. "I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA-15s or SA-22s [Russian missiles]. The Chechen soldiers are clear they're in Ukraine to make up for around two centuries of Russian oppression of their mountainous and frequently mutinous homeland from Joseph Stalin's population deportation in the . 30 Apr 2023 13:25:28 A nuclear war is extremely unlikely. Recent tests of US systems, by contrast, have not gone well. Russia currently occupies parts of Ukraine, but the U.S. still considers Moscow's March 2014 invasion illegal and its control there illegitimate. What war with Iran could look like Military Times interviewed more than a dozen military experts, including current and former U.S. military officials, about how a conflict might begin and. America Cannot Take On China And Russia Simultaneously In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. Well assume Russia strikes first. This is what would happen if Russia and the US had a nuclear war - MSN Moscow would then open a dialogue with Washington, stating that the bulk of American nuclear weaponsland-based missiles and bombershave been destroyed, but Americas infrastructure and cities are still intact. On Wednesday, Russian officials expressed openness to a peace agreement that would allow an independent Ukraine to maintain its own military as long as it committed to a "neutral status" akin to. The immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP, an online tool that was developed by Alex Wellerstein at the Stevens Institute of Technology. Fighting back would mean launching what remained of its ICBMs and any bombers that survived, using them to hunt down remaining Russian nuclear weapons. How long that can be sustained is unclear.That and other questions about Russian military capabilities and objectives are taking center stage as Putin shows a relentless willingness to use military force in a heavy-handed foreign policy aimed at restoring his nation's stature as a world power. Russias leadership would then warn that any attempt to retaliate would unleash the rest of the countrys nuclear weapons, killing millions more and destroying the U.S. as a military, political, and economic entity. While this might result in a conventional victory, things could rapidly take a sinister turn. U.S. officials and others cast doubt on that claim, saying the Russians appeared to be attacking opposition groups fighting Syrian government forces.